4. SOPR & Adjusted SOPR: Tracking Seller Profit Realization in Real Time
Part of Chapter 04: On-Chain Valuation & Market Cycle Metrics
- SOPR = Realized Value / Value at Creation
- SOPR = 1.0 as the critical neutral break-even pivot
- Adjusted SOPR (aSOPR): Filtering out noise from intra-day UTXO churn
While NUPL tracks paper (unrealized) profits, the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) tracks actual realized profit and loss from coins that are actively moving on-chain.
A SOPR value greater than 1 indicates that coins moved that day were sold at a profit. A value below 1 indicates coins were sold at a loss.
In a healthy bull market, dips down to SOPR = 1.0 act as formidable support. Investors refuse to sell their coins at a loss and buy the dip at their break-even level. If SOPR breaks cleanly below 1.0 and gets rejected from below on retests, a bear market has begun.
\text{SOPR} = \frac{P_{\text{spent}}}{P_{\text{created}}}Mathematical Explanation: A value of exactly 1.0 represents aggregate breakeven. Bull market pullbacks consistently bounce at SOPR 1.0.
Use a 7-day or 14-day moving average of aSOPR on your daily charts. Bullish resets where aSOPR touches 1.0 and bounces provide optimal low-risk swing long entry triggers.
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All Lessons in Chapter 04
On-Chain Valuation & Market Cycle Metrics (10 Lessons)